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Bayesian Probability, part 2
Feb. 1st, 2005 02:59 pmFollowing on from my recent post. In this one, I'm going to talk a bit about independent vs non-independent random variables, and how we can go astray trying to follow a Bayesian approach.
Before I start, BTW... I'm going to be talking about human judgement as a calculation of probabilities. I'm not for one moment suggesting that the average human actually works through these calculations as such, any more than a basketballer stops to apply physics equations when he shoots for a hoop. But human decision-making does often follow a fuzzy approximation of Bayesian analysis, and some of the places where it goes wrong can be understood by examining the subtleties of Bayesian analysis.
( Probability theory goes to court. )
Before I start, BTW... I'm going to be talking about human judgement as a calculation of probabilities. I'm not for one moment suggesting that the average human actually works through these calculations as such, any more than a basketballer stops to apply physics equations when he shoots for a hoop. But human decision-making does often follow a fuzzy approximation of Bayesian analysis, and some of the places where it goes wrong can be understood by examining the subtleties of Bayesian analysis.
( Probability theory goes to court. )
